Church Statistics 2003/4

Projections of Stipendiary Clergy Numbers

The table below shows the latest projections for the number of stipendiary clergy working in the diocesan framework up to the end of the year 2009. A strong note of caution must be attached to these projections. There remains a large degree of uncertainty about the various 'comings and goings' which combine to produce the total clergy number.

Full-time equivalence of stipendiary clergy in diocesan ministry: 2000-2004 and projections 2005-2009

Year (Dec)	Men	Women	Total
2000	8320	1170	9490
2001	8080	1260	9340
2002	7870	1330	9200
2003	7670	1430	9100
2004	7430	1470	8900
2005	7260	1480	8740
2006	7090	1530	8620
2007	6940	1550	8490
2008	6790	1570	8360
2009	6620	1580	8200

In each case, the figures above have been rounded to the nearer 10.

These projections assume that for both men and women the recent patterns for deaths in service and resignations will continue into the future. Since the number of deaths in service and resignations in a year will depend on the number of clergy at the start of the year, these numbers are likely to decrease in the future as total clergy numbers fall. Estimates of future retirement patterns are based on those of the last three years, with more weight being given to the 2004 figures. The average age for clergy has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years and now appears to be stabilising at approximately 50 for both men and women (ref. Clergy age profiles and age structure).

The most recent information available indicates that 274 ordinations will take place in 2005 and 235 in 2006. These figures have been assumed for the 2005 and 2006 projections. For the years 2007 to 2009 a moving average of the previous five years? stipendiary ordination figures has been used (ref. Clergy leavers under the ordination of women legislation). These are revised estimates where most recently it was assumed there would be 251 ordinations each year from 2005 onwards. Ordination numbers are estimated several years ahead in consultation with the theological institutions and dioceses and there will be factors influencing these figures which at this stage cannot be anticipated.

The likely number of other entrants to stipendiary ministry is also uncertain. These include those transferring from non-stipendiary ministry, chaplaincies, returning from a period outside ministry or coming from other provinces. In the absence of any strong evidence it has been assumed that the number will remain close to recent levels for the next few years.

Consequently, it is impossible to give exact predictions, but the evidence continues to point to a decreasing availability of stipendiary clergy over the next few years. The number of people entering stipendiary ministry is not expected to increase significantly and is more than offset by the large number of existing clergy who are approaching retirement. In contrast, the number of non-stipendiary clergy continues to increase (ref. Non-stipendiary ministers and Church Army evangelists 2004). The table on the following page shows the projected individual diocesan shares for the year-ends 2005 to 2009. These figures should be viewed with great caution. They depend on the latest diocesan based government population projections and may fluctuate from one year to another. The projections should be treated only as pointers to future diocesan shares assuming that current national trends are maintained.

The supply and demand of stipendiary clergy is monitored annually by the House of Bishops.