Projections of stipendiary clergy numbers
The table below
shows the latest projections for the number of stipendiary clergy working in the
diocesan framework up to the end of the year 2010. A strong note of caution must be attached to these projections. There remains a large degree of
uncertainty about the various ?comings and goings?, which combine to produce
the total clergy number.
Full-time equivalence of stipendiary clergy in diocesan ministry: 2000-2005 and projections 2006-2010
|
Year
(Dec) |
Men |
Women |
TOTAL |
|
2000 |
8,320 |
1,170 |
9,490 |
|
2001 |
8,080 |
1,260 |
9,340 |
|
2002 |
7,870 |
1,330 |
9,200 |
|
2003 |
7,670 |
1,430 |
9,100 |
|
2004 |
7,430 |
1,470 |
8,900 |
|
2005 |
7,280 |
1,540 |
8,820 |
|
2006 |
7,110 |
1,550 |
8,660 |
|
2007 |
6,990 |
1,590 |
8,580 |
|
2008 |
6,840 |
1,610 |
8,450 |
|
2009 |
6,670 |
1,630 |
8,300 |
|
2010 |
6,500 |
1,650 |
8,150 |
In
each case, the figures above have been rounded to the nearer 10.
These
projections assume that for both men and women the recent patterns for deaths in
service and resignations will continue into the future. Since the number of
deaths in service and resignations in a year will depend on the number of clergy
at the start of the year, these numbers are likely to decrease in the future as
total clergy numbers fall. Estimates
of future retirement patterns are based on those of the last three years, with
more weight being given to the 2005 figures. The average age for clergy has been increasing slowly over the last 20
years and now appears to be stabilising at approximately 50 for both men and
women (table
34).
The
most recent information available indicates that 235 ordinations will take place
in 2006 and an estimated 315 in 2007. These figures have been assumed for the
2006 and 2007 projections. For the years 2008 to 2010 a moving average of the
previous five years? stipendiary ordination figures has been used. Ordination numbers are estimated several years ahead in consultation with
the theological institutions and dioceses and there will be factors influencing
these figures, which at this stage cannot be anticipated.
The
likely number of other entrants to stipendiary ministry is also uncertain.
These include those transferring from non-stipendiary ministry,
chaplaincies, returning from a period outside ministry or coming from other
provinces. In the absence of any
strong evidence it has been assumed that the number will remain close to recent
levels for the next few years.
Consequently,
it is impossible to give exact predictions, but the evidence continues to point
to a decreasing availability of stipendiary clergy over the next few years.
The number of people entering stipendiary ministry is not expected to
increase significantly and is more than offset by the large number of existing
clergy who are approaching retirement. In contrast, the number of
non-stipendiary clergy continues to increase.
Projections of diocesan stipendiary clergy shares 2006 to
2010
on the following page shows the projected individual diocesan shares for the
year-ends 2006 to 2010. These
figures should be viewed with great caution. They
depend on the latest diocesan based government population projections and may
fluctuate from one year to another. The
projections should be treated only as pointers to future diocesan shares
assuming that current national trends are maintained.
The
supply and demand of stipendiary clergy is monitored annually by the House of
Bishops.